Daily Archives: August 11, 2009

World Cup Qualification Odds

So there’s a website called Sports Club Stats that does the odds for making the World Cup out of the CONCACAF region.  They say that our current odds of making the WC are 95.5% while our chance of finishing number 1 is 31%.  There are some neat charts and tables but this one shows the implications of our game with Mexico tomorrow:

Wednesday, 8/12
Mexico vs USA 4:00 PM
Chance in World Cup if:
Mexico wins USA wins Draw
Mexico 66.1 30.7 42.7
El Salvador 26.6 37.4 33.3
Honduras 65.3 75.6 72.0
USA 89.3 99.4 96.7
T & T 4.1 7.5 6.1
Costa Rica 98.6 99.4 99.2

So pretty much if we beat Mexico tomorrow were in almost for sure and their odds are very bad.  If we lose they are probably going to make it, and we are still sitting pretty well but a little less certain.  If we draw our odds are pretty great as well.  So while tomorrow is very important for pride and revenge, it is not the most important game for us in terms of the WC.  But it is for Mexico…

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Who to drop?

brian-chingSo the current roster for the game against Mexico is 20 guys, but the only 18 players actually get to be on the roster come game time, so the question is who to drop?

Here is the roster to look over again:

U.S. ROSTER BY POSITION Full Roster Click Here
GOALKEEPERS (2): Brad Guzan (Aston Villa: 5/3 SO), Tim Howard (Everton FC: 11/7 SO)
DEFENDERS (7): Carlos Bocanegra (Rennes: 21/3), Jonathan Bornstein (Chivas USA, 2/0), Steve Cherundolo (Hannover: 18/0), Jay DeMerit (Watford: 2/0), Chad Marshall (Columbus Crew: 1/0), Oguchi Onyewu (AC Milan: 16/1), Jonathan Spector (West Ham: 2/0)
MIDFIELDERS (6): Michael Bradley (Borussia Mönchengladbach: 10/4), Ricardo Clark (Houston Dynamo: 5/0), Clint Dempsey (Fulham FC: 17/4), Benny Feilhaber (AGF Aarhus: 1/0), Stuart Holden (Houston Dynamo: 0/0), José Francisco Torres (Pachuca: 5/0)
FORWARDS (5): Jozy Altidore (Hull City: 8/5), Conor Casey (Colorado Rapids: 5/0), Brian Ching (Houston Dynamo: 15/6), Charlie Davies (FC Sochaux: 2/1), Landon Donovan (Los Angeles Galaxy: 30/11)
*numbers indicate all-time World Cup Qualifying caps/goals

Which two players will be dropped to get to the 18?

To me it seems that it should be 1 D player and one Forward/Midfielder.  I don’t Bob Bradley would call a player from overseas to come back if they were not going to play so that only leaves the MLS guys to eliminate.  For the D that is Bornstein or Marshall. Of these I think it is more likely to be Marshall but I’ll put it at 60% Marshall and 40% Bornstein. 


For the F/M it is between Casey, Ching and Holden.  I don’t think it will be Holden because both Donovan and Dempsey can move up to play Forward if need be.  For Casey and Ching, while Casey played in the Confed Cup and Ching didn’t, Casey has been hot scoring a Hat-Trick this week, and while considering Ching has been hurt, I still see Casey as the most likely to be left off.  Ching just has so much experience and in a game in Azteca experience could play a big role.  I will put the odds at Casey 60% Ching 30% and Holden 10%.

What do you think? Who should be left off? Who will be left off?

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